Peanut Tracker

HarvestedPeanuts are a unique crop in their reporting, compared to others. Every ton of peanuts that passes through the Federal State Inspection Service is recorded and the results are updated on a daily basis. This is quite different than corn and soybean crops which may be fed directly to livestock, may have been harvested early, left in the field until spring, or stored away in a grain bin.

It is no secret that I think the USDA peanut crop estimate was a little optimistic given that many areas of the Southeast recorded very low rainfall amounts throughout the growing season. Perhaps it is because I am from the “Show-Me State” I have to see the harvest numbers before I believe the yield estimates to be true. The summary numbers show that about 77% of the National peanut crop has been delivered and graded as of 11/3/14. The Florida statistics show only 65% of the estimated crop harvested. This lower number is somewhat typical because peanuts that are delivered to Alabama and Georgia buying points are preliminarily recorded in those states and shifted back to Florida as paperwork is finalized. However, I also think the October yield estimate for Florida was overly optimistic.

TOTALSIt looks like Texas and South Carolina, two large production states have a lot of harvesting left to do.  There is also a pretty substantial amount expected in Georgia, almost a quarter million tons, as much as Florida produced this year. Big numbers from those states in the next 10 days whould bring us much closer to the 2.5 million tons of peanuts that are expected to be delivered this year. As I look back on my yield estimates of 2.2 million tons from my flacrops post (2014 Peanuts) dated 9/5/14, I am wondering if I wasn’t too far off.

We received an early freeze here in North Florida this week, and I suspect this event wrapped up peanut season throughout the Southeast from a maturity perspective. I am not aware of any unharvested peanuts in the area, this was a non-event for our local crop. We have had 30 days of near perfect harvesting conditions in the Southeast, I suspect harvest will be completed soon. It is my experience peanut season is usually “in the books” by November 15th.

This information may be dated upon its release and should not be considered interpersonal advice. This report is merely an opinion. Marketers should not consider entering positions without their own independent analysis of the current market situation, nor without considerations of changes which have occurred since publication. The author is not responsible for any verbal or written claims which may arise as a result of this publication. The information contained herein is provided as a general guide and only for the purpose of quantifying the author’s opinions. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but independent verification has not been completed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

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